At some point...

A few things I think will happen over time:

• AI systems will handle the majority of today's economically valuable work (aka AGI). This will be a moving target as we find new work to do. (I don't know how to reason about ASI)
• Adoption will be bottlenecked by the laws of physics and human nature, so there will be a capability overhang for a while.
• While most software will be generated, people will still gravitate to common defaults and guardrails.
• Lasting advantages will be built around community, time, and compute.
• People will have one primary daily assistant/friend but will rely on many other models to get things done.
• As LLMs become more OS-like, devices will become increasingly interchangeable other than sentimental value. Anything with a screen and WiFi is your computer.

I won't justify any of these claims, but I will take credit if I'm right. I don't know much of anything, so please hit me up if you have a different take.